This is a heavily interactive web application, and JavaScript is required. Simple HTML interfaces are possible, but that is not what this is.
Post
Aaron Roth
aaroth.bsky.social
did:plc:3q2kaxhjkceuc7kj4dmtfstl
It includes calibrated (and multicalibrated) forecasts. It implies not just that we can get these qualitative statements in the limit as time grows large, but that we can get them at the same rates as an informed forecaster (since the arbitrary test can check rates).
2024-11-15T13:18:44.400Z